May 1
Order Book Too Shallow for Arbitrage Trade
Largest company End of June 2026 Alphabet not arb-able volume too small given opinion minimum trade notional of $5, and polymarkets miminum of $1. The order book cannot support this
Arb math:
payout_if_yes = total_yes_shares x $1
payout_if_no = total_no_shares x $1
trade_only_cost = gross_trade_cost + trading_fees + buffer
fully_loaded_cost = gross_trade_cost + trading_fees + deposit_funding_fees + buffer
trade_only_worst_case_pnl = min(payout_if_yes, payout_if_no) - trade_only_cost
fully_loaded_worst_case_pnl = min(payout_if_yes, payout_if_no) - fully_loaded_cost
decision_pnl = trade_only_worst_case_pnl
Current:
status = DEPTH TOO SMALL
matched shares = 42
unmatched YES = 0
unmatched NO = 0
gross trade cost = $33.7260
trading fees = $0.2500
deposit/funding fees = $0.1000
trade-only P&L = $8.0240
fully loaded P&L = $7.9240
decision P&L = $8.0240
Pending